From this morning's Irish Independent:

ALMOST three-quarters of people who voted 'No' in the Lisbon Treaty referendum mistakenly believed the pact could be easily renegotiated.

A major survey of voters conducted by the European Commission immediately after last Thursday's referendum reveals why a majority of Irish people rejected the treaty.

The publication of the first research into the reasons behind the 'No' vote comes as Taoiseach Brian Cowen and Foreign Affairs Minister Micheal Martin desperately attempt to garner support across the EU to help Ireland resolve the crisis caused by the result.

The poll of 2,000 voters found:

- Young people voted 'No' by a margin of two to one.

- The vast majority of women voted 'No'.

- A large number of people who do not vote in general elections voted.

- People who did not understand the treaty voted 'No'.

- The huge influx of immigrants into the country was a factor in the 'No' vote.

- More than 70pc of 'No' voters thought a second treaty would be negotiated.

This belief is being attributed to the Nice I and II scenarios, where the treaty was re-run in a referendum after assurances were given on Ireland's neutrality.

The findings show immigration was an unspoken factor in the vote, as people expressed concern about the numbers of immigrants coming to the country in such a short time. The rise in unemployment, allied to foreign workers coming to the country, was also cited.

Mr Cowen faces a battery of questions today on this week's EU Council meeting as he returns to the Dail for the first time since the referendum defeat.

European Union foreign ministers vowed yesterday to keep the treaty alive, despite the vote, but conceded they had no quick solution to salvage it.

But EU leaders will expect to hear from Mr Cowen at a summit in Brussels later this week on whether he sees any hope of winning a new referendum. The second referendum step has not been ruled out by ministers, but is a high-risk strategy.

Mr Cowen acknowledged that Ireland faced a "dilemma" over the defeated treaty, after he emerged from a meeting with British prime minister Gordon Brown.

In an effort to win the support and understanding of his EU counterparts, he met Mr Brown for 20 minutes during the visit of US President George W Bush to the North.

The input of Mr Brown was described as both "measured and constructive" by the Taoiseach. But he also conceded that the Government is now facing a "dilemma" and a "problem".

"I think we are setting the scene for a process of work that needs to take place. It doesn't reduce the fact that there is a dilemma here, that there is a problem here that we have to face and confront," he said.

"But I think we have to do it calmly and collectively and do it in a way which seeks to push matters forward."

Mr Martin said none of his EU counterparts blamed the Government for the crisis. He said all countries vowed to work with Ireland to find a solution to the problem and there were no threats of exclusion from the EU's future.

Meeting EU representatives for the first time since the defeat of the referendum, Mr Martin said the mood was one of a "sense of solidarity".

EU Commissioner Charlie McCreevy earlier warned that Ireland would not be "bullied" by the EU. Although he said it was possible "new arrangements" could be made between the Government and EU leaders on the way forward, he said the "sovereign decision" of the Irish people had to be respected.

As I predicted when the 'No' votes won it in Ireland, several European commentators have decided to ignore the democratic wishes of the Irish people, indicating that only one response to the Lisbon Treaty was acceptable... and it wasn't 'No'.

From this morning's Sunday Times (my emphases in bold):

The initial official reaction to the result was that the verdict of the Irish people “should be respected”. However, it soon became clear that they were regarded as having made a terrible mistake. European politicians queued up to lecture them on the folly of their ways.

“It is not truly democratic that less than a million people can decide the fate of almost half a billion Europeans,” said a dejected Daniel Cohn-Bendit, the German leader of the European Greens.

“We are incredibly disappointed,” said Axel Schäfer, a member of the German Bundestag committee on EU affairs. “We think it is a real cheek that the country that has benefited most from the EU should do this. There is no other Europe than this treaty.”

Giorgio Napolitano, the Italian president, was equally critical, calling for states obstructing integration to be left out of the EU. “Now is the time for a courageous choice by those who want coherent progress in building Europe, leaving out those who, despite solemn signed pledges, threaten to block it,” he said.

There was even a lesson in group loyalty from the Balkans. “Now that they have used the accession and structural funds, when they developed enormously, I’m a little surprised that the solidarity is at an end,” said Stipe Mesic, the Croatian president.

Actually, the Irish decision was the only truly democratic one across all of the 27 member states of the EU. I believe most government secretly feared a public rejection and so avoided the scenario completely by refusing the public a say. Only Ireland was constitutionally obliged to have a referendum, and now, as they say, the people have spoken.

I wonder how voters in the other states would have responded, had they been given the option. Pro-EU attitudes vary considerably from state to state. The UK and most of Scandanavia seems to be generally cooler in their attitudes to integration than say France or Germany.

Let's not forget that the Lisbon Treaty is simply the European Constitution in another guise. And that Constitution was voted down by the people of France and the Netherlands. I don't remember anyone calling for them to be thrown out of the European Union at the time.

A phrase I've heard over and over since the referendum has been 'democratic deficit'. There is a definite democratic deficit across the EU where the public weren't given the opportunity to vote on a treaty that would alter their countries significantly. There was a democrtic deficit in Ireland where the government, and all other major political parties (except the gangsters and hoodlums in Sinn Fein), ran a lacklustre and patronising 'Yes' campaign, assuming the Irish people would line up and do as they were told.

But they didn't.

There was definitely an element of anti-government sentiment in the 'No' vote, some frustration and fear at the slowing economy for sure. But the Government did nothing to stop the wild rumours that the 'No' campaign propogated, such as the Treaty would legalise abortion in all member states and would create a European Army and thus destroy Ireland's cherished neutrality. Utter nonsense, but this took hold over some people in the absence of a solid counter-argument from the 'Yes' campaign. Shameful.

I'm not a Euro-sceptic, I'm all for continuing integration across the EU and for the development of trans-national structures and cooperation. I am, however, solidly against a tiny minority of politicians changing the status quo of the Union without a democratic mandate.

Ireland was not alone in receiving strutural funds from the EU - Spain, Portugal, Greece and the newer members of the EU have all benefitted financially. However, this does not mean these state should simply 'toe the line' or cease to raise their voices in disagreement. The EU has not 'bought' Irish silence.

The EU's leaders knew well in advance that Ireland would have to have a referendum on this issue. They did nothing to ensure that the Irish people were well enough informed or that they could see the benefits of approving the Treaty. There was a generally held assumption that the Irish would be 'good Europeans' and gratefully shout 'Yes' in unison. And when they didn't, there was annoyance, dismay and shock. Why? Why couldn't they see this coming?

If anyone should be 'blamed' for the 'No' vote, it shouldn't be Ireland's voters. It should be the arrogant and feckless politicians who mis-managed the campaign (Brian Cowen, Dick Roche, Mary Coughlin... pathetic).

What next? Well, the Irish government has already said they won't present another referendum on the matter in the next 12 months. I think the heads of EU governments should take a long hard look at this situation and examine what they can do to more effectively sell the benefits of Lisbon and demonstrate they are listening to the public mood. But they have a battle on their hands.

The Irish weren't the only people rejecting the Treaty - they were just the only voices we could hear.

Europe...

...has rejected the Lisbon Treaty, according to the BBC.

Irish Justice Minister Dermot Ahern says substantial vote tallies across the country show the European Union Lisbon reform treaty has been rejected.

Tallies are not official, but Mr Ahern says it is clear the No vote is ahead in a vast majority of constituencies.

This would scupper the treaty, which must be ratified by all members. Only Ireland has held a public vote on it.

Mr Ahern is the first senior figure from the Irish government to admit that it looked like the treaty had failed.

"It looks like this will be a No vote," Mr Ahern said on live television. "At the end of the day, for a myriad of reasons, the people have spoken."

He said it looked like other EU countries would ratify the treaty, so an Irish No vote would leave the EU in "unchartered waters".

Earlier, Europe Minister Dick Roche had admitted "it is not looking good", after state broadcaster RTE said that the Yes vote was "in difficulty".

I'm not sure what to think about this right now. Though I predict an anti-Irish backlash in some sections, based on "all the money Ireland got from the EU and this is how they repay us" argument. One could look at Spain, Portugal, Greece and most of Eastern Europe in a similar light - all recipients of major structural funds from Brussels.

I wonder what the results would have been had any other member state been obliged to have a referendum on this?

I also predict the right-wing British press will love this, making lots of pointless comparisons to Dunkirk spirit and keeping the babarians at the gate etc.

Watch this space.

Show us something crooked.

Laughing all the way to the bank...

RTÉ are reporting that new Taoiseach, Brian Cowen, is already making friends in the Dail:

A spokesman for the Taoiseach has said Brian Cowen regrets any offence caused by remarks picked up on the Dáil microphones after Leaders Questions this morning.

Mr Cowen was heard using a profanity in what the spokesman said was a casual exchange between working colleagues that was not a reference to any member of the house.

After angry exchanges over health Mr Cowen had been questioned by Labour's Eamon Gilmore on price increases and what he said had been the failure of the National Consumer Agency and other bodies to act.

RTÉ News understands that what the Taoiseach said to Ms Coughlan was: 'We need to get a handle on this, will you ring those f***ers.'

That was a reference to the relevant officials rather than the opposition.

Fine Gael criticised the Taoiseach for using unparliamentary language towards the Opposition, but RTÉ News understands Mr Cowen was not referring to Fine Gael.

The party had just been involved in angry exchanges over health spending.

Fine Gael's Dan Neville cited the remarks in a statement, claiming Mr Cowen had displayed his intolerance for the difficult questions which his party had been putting to him on health spending.

He claimed the Taoiseach had lost it and his use of the f-word referred to Fine Gael.

A Government spokesman earlier confirmed the microphones had picked up what he said was 'a private exchange that was not on the Dáil record.'

Cowen threatens Dail hecklers

At one point in the exchanges over health, Mr Cowen told the Fine Gael spokesman on Health, Dr James Reilly, that if the heckling continued, he could arrange that Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny would not be heard in the chamber again.

The row erupted after Mr Kenny questioned the Taoiseach about health expenditure.

A charge that Fine Gael had not backed a single initiative aimed at improving health services drew instant howls from Mr Kenny's front bench.

Dr Reilly was the most vocal, bellowing across the chamber that Mr Cowen was playing the man not the ball.

Amid continued noisy exchanges, the Taoiseach warned that he could organise similar behaviour from his own benches, before bluntly threatening Dr Reilly.

Mr Kenny protested, the Ceann Comhairle intervened and calm was restored.

Bertie Ahern frequently had to endure barracking from the Opposition during Leaders' Questions, sometimes complaining to the Ceann Comhairle.

But Mr Cowen signalled today he would not be taking it from Fine Gael and Labour, even if he has left himself open to a charge of conduct unbecoming of a Government leader.

Dr_Patrick_Hillery

Dr. Patrick Hillery died earlier today at the age of 84. From the Irish Times:

Dr Hillery, originally from Co Clare, served two seven-year terms as President of Ireland from 1976 to 1990.

His long and distinguished career in public life began in 1951 when he was elected alongside Éamon de Valera as a Fianna Fáil TD for Clare.

He held a number of ministerial posts (Education, Industry and Commerce, Labour and Foreign Affairs) prior to being appointed Ireland's first EEC Commissioner in 1973.

He held the post of vice president of the then Commission of the European Communities, with special responsibility for social affairs until 1976, when he was elected President of Ireland.

Patrick Hillery was born on May 2nd, 1923, at Miltown Malbay, Co Clare. He received his secondary education at Rockwell College, Co Tipperary. He went on to study medicine at UCD where he qualified as a doctor in 1947.

He was elected to Dáil Éireann in 1951 and was to remain a TD for Clare until taking the post in Brussels 21 years later.

He had the unusual distinction of being elected president twice unopposed. The first time, in 1976, the post was virtually imposed on him by his own party at a time of crisis following the resignation of President Cearbhall O Dalaigh.

Despite letting it be known privately that he did not wish to stand for a second term, he was prevailed upon to do so by the leaders of the three main parties and was again elected unopposed in 1983.

He was inaugurated for a second term on December 4th, 1983 at a low-key ceremony in Dublin Castle.

During the 1990 presidential campaign, which was evenutally won by Mary Robinson, controversy erupted over an incident during Dr Hillery’s first term in office in 1982 when the Fine Gael-led government of Dr Garret FitzGerald collapsed after losing a Dail vote.

At the time several Fianna Fáil ministers were alleged to have telephoned Áras an Uachtaráin in an attempt to persuade president Hillery not to dissolve the Dail at the request of Dr Fitzgerald but to call on the then Fianna Fail leader, Charles Haughey, to form the next government.

The late Brian Lenihan who was the Fianna Fáil candidate to succeed Dr Hillery in 1990 first denied that he had been one of those who telephoned the  Áras but was later forced to change his initial claim after the tape of an interview with a research student in which he said he had telephoned was then released.

Many believe the incident cost Mr Lenihan the election.

Dr Hillery is survived by his wife Maeve, his son John and his grandchildren.  He and his wife also had a daughter Vivienne, who died in 1985.

President Mary McAleese led tributes to Dr Hillery and said she had learned of his death "with deepest sadness".

"Dr Hillery made an enormous contribution to this country at key times in the vital and necessary development of this state.

Taoiseach Bertie Ahern said Dr Hillery had served two terms as president “with great dignity, skill and generosity.

“In volatile political times, he was a cool head, who exercised his powers wisely, and assiduously protected the independence of Ireland’s highest office.” 

He said an offer of a state funeral has been accepted by the Hillery family and the details will be announced later.

Former president Mary Robinson said her predecessor was supportive of the ways she wanted to change the presidency, and funny, warn and generous when they met before she was inaugurated.

Compared to the shower in Leinster House these days, this guy was a gentleman. He will be missed.

Howarya?

As predicted, Brian Cowen is going to become leader of Fianna Fail and thus Taoiseach. Bertie indicated Cowen was his preferred choice and so it came to pass.

Cowen (or 'Biffo' as he's also known) is widely regarded as intelligent, but something of a bruiser. He also has an awful habit of pulling unusual faces while in front of the press. The tongue. Always with the tongue.

Not the most delicate of God's creatures or terribly photogenic. However, the Irish electorate seems happy enough with him. For the moment.

Brian Cowen. A real looker.

Cowen again...

I'm what now?

From the BBC (and I'm so frustrated I was too busy at work today to blog even a single line about this before now!)

Ahern to resign as Irish premier

Irish Prime Minister Bertie Ahern has announced he is to resign on 6 May.

Mr Ahern, 56, has been taoiseach since June 1997 and has been a member of the Irish Parliament for 31 years.

The announcement comes a day after Mr Ahern began a court challenge to limit the work of a public inquiry probing planning corruption in the 1990s.

The tribunal is probing Mr Ahern's personal finances. Mr Ahern has been leader of Fianna Fáil since 1994 and heads the coalition government.

Mr Ahern told a news conference he would tender his resignation as both taoiseach and Fianna Fáil leader on 6 May.

He said: "The priority I put above all others was to work for peace on this island, and I have given all to that cause.

"I know in my heart of hearts I have done no wrong and wronged no-one.

"My decision is motivated by what is best for the people. It is a personal decision.

"I will not allow issues related to my own person to dominate the people and the body politic."

Mr Ahern said he had nothing to fear from on-going inquiries about his finances at the tribunal into planning corruption.

"While I will be the first to admit that I've made mistakes in my life and in my career, one mistake I've never made was to enrich myself by misusing the trust of the people.

"I have never received a corrupt payment and I've never done anything to dishonour any office that I've ever held."

Mr Ahern will be remembered for his role in the negotiations leading up to the Good Friday Agreement of 1998. When the talks at Stormont were in their crucial final stages, he returned from his mother's funeral to rejoin the negotiations.

He said on Wednesday: "The Good Friday Agreement now provides the political framework for the island to meet its full political potential."

Mr Ahern has been the most successful politician in the Republic of Ireland since Eamon De Valera, winning three elections. He is Ireland's second-longest serving taoiseach.

BBC Northern Ireland political editor Mark Devenport described Mr Ahern's impending departure as "death by a thousand cuts".

"Bertie Ahern was coming under increasing pressure from the Mahon Tribunal," he said. "I think he felt this wouldn't go away, and, if he didn't give a date for his departure, the Dublin media, in particular, would be relentless."

The Irish Independent helpfully outlines the comings and goings of Bertie Ahern's many financial accounts in this morning's edition. It's interesting reading, to say the least. For a former Minister of Finance (and present Prime Minister) to have conducted his personal financial affairs in such a slapdash and frankly sinister way is nothing short of astounding. For example:

January 19 -- £50,000 in cash withdrawn by Celia Larkin and given to Bertie, waiting in a car around the corner. Ahern says he used some of the £30,000 or so cash to ask someone, whose name he can't remember, to buy £30,000 stg cash for him.

"Whose name he can't remember"?! WTF?

Ahern's evidence to the Mahon Tribunal has been cringe-making. His excuses for these various financial irregularities have been worse than those of a schoolboy caught copying someone else's homework. He's an embarrassment to the country and should be given the boot (and a jail sentence) as soon as humanly possible.

Further to the announcement that he would be making a statement to the Dail concerning his private finances, it now appears that he's going to back-track on this. Senior cabinet ministers have warned him off saying anything outside of the tribunal.

After meeting Tanaiste Brian Cowen briefly before the weekend, Mr Ahern spoke to up to four other senior Fianna Fail ministers.

A senior source said: "He did test the waters of some senior ministers on what he should do. The advice from some was the tribunal was the setting to deal with these matters and to deal with it there."

This advice would generally tally with the opinions expressed publicly last week by ministers Dermot Ahern, Willie O'Dea and Brian Lenihan when asked about the demands for clarification by Greens leader John Gormley and PDs' leader Mary Harney.

Mr Ahern is now understood to be "mulling over" what exactly he will say if asked by the opposition on Wednesday to explain the difference between his evidence and that of his former secretary, Grainne Carruth.

"The jury is still out on what he should do. It will only happen if he is asked, but the time is limited. He is mulling over it now," the source said.

Contrary to firm indications earlier in the weekend that he would make some statement in the Dail to clarify matters, it now appears it is no longer as clear-cut following his discussions with ministers.

The problem with deferring his explanation to his next appearance at Dublin Castle is the Taoiseach is not scheduled to appear until at least May 20, unless a suitable date can be made available in the intervening period.

Mr Ahern's complicated explanation for the contradiction in evidence is understood to centre on a new claim that he cashed the salary cheques into sterling and that this foreign currency was then cashed back into punts and lodged into his Irish Permanent savings accounts by Ms Carruth.

Disgusting. It's like watching the Haughey saga unfold once again.
 

Bertie_Car

Following on from my earlier posting regarding Bertie Ahern's dickensian poverty, it appears things have taken a turn for the worse.

Indeed, despite earlier protests to the contrary, the cabinet are going to postpone their pay rise this year (how will they clothe and edumacate their childers??) and this includes Bertie himself.

From this morning's Irish Independent:

"TAOISEACH Bertie Ahern's leadership was further undermined yesterday as a public backlash forced ministers into a dramatic u-turn on their exorbitant pay hikes.

But the sting in the tail for taxpayers is that Mr Ahern will still pick up his enormous €38,000 wage rise -- just a year later than planned.

Mr Ahern was the most vocal defender of the pay rises, even going so far as to claim that he was "poverty stricken" compared to other world leaders and that deferring the payments would be "playing smokes and daggers with it".

Yet in a highly embarrassing move for him, the Cabinet decided yesterday to postpone their lavish wage hikes for a year.

The Taoiseach's salary will still rise to €310,000 in less than three years, rather than being phased in over two years.

The initial chunk of the wage rise was worth €13,635 to Mr Ahern.

The rest of the pay awards from an independent review body's report will go through as planned, including the €58,000 extra for Julie O'Neill, the Department of Transport secretary general who failed to inform Transport Minister Noel Dempsey about the Aer Lingus pullout of Shannon.

Mr Ahern's handling of the pay awards controversy was immediately called into question as opposition parties said it showed he was "out of touch".

The decision was taken to set the tone on the economy and in response to negative public feedback, a government spokesman said.

"They were cognisant of the deterioration in economic factors and were cognisant hearing it on the doorsteps," the spokesman said.

"The decision not to accept the award wasn't based on criticism alone. They felt they had to give certain leadership," the spokesman added.

The Government is claiming its move will result in substantial savings.

In fact, it just means the taxpayer won't be paying out €362,749 between now and next September, as this is the total amount by which the Ministers, junior ministers and other political office holders' salaries would have gone up by.

The ministers were getting 5pc from mid-September of this year with half the balance to come in September 2008 and the remainder in March 2009.

This timeframe is now changed to 4pc from September 2008, half the balance in September 2009 and the remainder in September 2010. When the full-pay award is implemented, it will still cost an extra €884,829 per annum. .

Labour Party leader Eamon Gilmore said the entire handling of the controversy illustrated the extent to which Mr Ahern and the Cabinet are out of touch with the public mood. "Some of the Taoiseach's attempts to defend the rise have been particularly pathetic, including his attempts toput on the 'beal bocht', because he does not have a White House or an Elysee Palace," he said.

Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny described the decision to defer the pay hikes as "a sham".

Mr Ahern said the Government was putting back the pay rises because the Exchequer figures in November were not as good as had been hoped and the public finances were tighter.

"Never has a Government since 1969 rejected it. They have phased it and delayed it but not rejected it. This Government will not do so either," Mr Ahern said. "It is a good example of our goodwill." "

And your fear of an angry electorate. You greasy little tosser.